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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30619/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-09T11:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1582
Longitude (deg): 12W
Latitude (deg): 10S
Half-angular width (deg): 42

Notes: CME sweeps up the preceding 3 Earth-directed CMEs from 08 May.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 37.00 hour(s)
Difference: 13.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-09T20:30Z

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